In Contrast Of Styles, Rays and Royals Make Deal - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

In Contrast Of Styles, Rays and Royals Make Deal Stuck

Posted on December 10, 2012 at 09:40 AM.

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The Kansas City Royals have had just one winning season since 1995. After the revenue explosion created a large gap between the Royals and most of the rest of the league, the Royals have been struggling to catch up ever since. First, they signed veterans who couldn�t get a job anywhere else. After that didn�t work, the organization began to revamp their Minor League system under General Manager Dayton Moore. The farm system improved, but Moore continued to make bizarre Major League deal after bizarre Major League deal. Moore asked fans and analysts to trust the developmental process, saying that it would take time.

Rebuilding does take time, but as the Royals� farm system began to produce, the worry that really began to surface was whether or not Moore could add pieces to a young, talented core at the Major League level. From his track record of signing the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Yuniesky Betancourt, there were legitimate worries.

Those worries seemed to come to fruition late Sunday night as the Royals sent their number one prospect, outfielder Wil Myers along with Minor League pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery, and Minor League infielder Patrick Leonard to the Tampa Bay Rays for starting pitcher James Shields and reliever/starter Wade Davis. The Rays will also send a player to be named later.

The Rays are the polar opposites of the Royals. They weren�t always that way. When the team first came into existence, the club continually tried to take short cuts, made poor decisions, and did a whole lot of losing Then, they were sold to Stuart Sternberg who hired Andrew Friedman. Friedman revamped the entire organization. The small payroll team would be precise in the draft, develop their own talent, and make smart decisions. The result is a World Series appearance in 2008 and seasons with at least 90 wins since 2010.

For the Rays, they are dealing their number two (sometimes number one) starting pitcher in Shields. Shields, who turns 31 this month, owns a career 87-73 record and 3.89 ERA and is the Rays all-time leader in wins (87), starts (217), innings pitched (1,454.2), strikeouts (1,250), complete games (19) and shutouts (eight).

There is no mistaking that the Rays will miss James Shields in 2013. He is one of the more underrated starters in the game as he is durable, consistent, and has averaged at least 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings in each of the last three seasons. He�s thrown 200 or more innings in every season since 2007. But, without Shields, the Rays still have a rotation of David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Alex Cobb and/or Chris Archer. Obviously, they were dealing from a position of strength and should still have one of the best rotations in the league in 2013.

They also part with Wade Davis, who would�ve started on most teams last season. Out of the bullpen Davis was electric, posting a 2.43 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 70.1 innings.

But, the Rays� pitching was historically good in 2012. They gave up just 577 runs, the least in Major League Baseball. They had two pitchers--Cobb and Archer--who had to spend most of the season in the Minor Leagues when the rotation was healthy. But, their offense was one of the worst in the game, scoring just 697 runs. They lost BJ Upton to the Braves this winter and they were a bit short on offensive players.

Dealing from depth, the Rays acquire the Royals number one prospect, outfielder Wil Myers. Myers name has been quite popular this winter as the Royals were actively looking for above average pitching and were willing to part with their prized talent because of their depth of offensive prospects. Myers hit a combined .314 with 37 home runs (second most in minor league baseball), 26 doubles, 109 RBI, 61 walks, a .387 on-base percentage and .600 slugging percentage in 134 games. Turning 22 today, Myers is one of the best offensive prospects in the sport. The Rays are betting that he will realize his potential and be a cornerstone, middle of the order hitter for the next decade.

It is a good bet as Myers is one of the most gifted offensive players in the Minor Leagues. Since being taken in third round of the 2008 draft, he has shown developing power and glimpses of above average plate discipline. He began the 2012 season as the number 28 prospect in Baseball and finished as number three. He immediately becomes the Rays number one offensive prospect and will compete for a Major League job for 2013.

But, the Rays get even more as they also acquire two young pitchers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. The 22 year old Odorizzi was named the 2012 Royals Minor League Pitching of the Year after posting a 3.30 ERA and an 8.4 K/9 rate over 25 combined starts between double-A and triple-A. He projects to be a very good middle of the rotation starter. Because of the Rays depth, he will start the season in the Minor Leagues. He gives the Rays another potential high end arm. Montgomery is a former first round pick and is a 22 year old left hander who is in need of a reset. He�s struggled at triple-A in the past two seasons, but is young enough to improve under a different organization. The Rays have maximized pitcher performance under the Friedman regime and perhaps can get Montgomery back on track.

Patrick Leonard is a 20 year old third baseman who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2011 draft and hit .251/.340/.494 in 62 games during his rookie season.

The Rays do not get any sure-fire talent. They do get high end talent that still has to prove itself. But, Wil Myers has a skill set that the Rays organization has lacked for a number of years: high end power. In order for the Rays to continue to contend on this budget, they will need Myers to continue to grow. Friedman tempers that bet by acquiring two big pitchers who have big ceilings. The trade gives them a young offensive player to plug in the middle of the order and even more depth in the system.

For the Royals, the move is already being met with criticism. They are overpaying for two seasons of a high end pitcher in Shields. Shields will lead a rotation that will now have him as the role of number one starter followed by Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen, and possibly Wade Davis. Moore�s thought process is that it may be time to push for contention in the American League Central. Last season, the Tigers won just 88 games for the division flag. Moore�s team won just 72 games with a rotation that ranked 11th in the American League with a 7.7 WAR value, a 5.01 ERA, and a 3.19 BB/9 ratio. Their 4.50 FIP ranked 10th, while their 6.49 K/9 ranked 9th. No Royals starter pitched more than two hundred innings and just two pitched more than 180. With a legitimate top of the rotation type starter in Shields, followed by the veterans, Moore is hoping his rotation will be stable enough to compete.

He is assuming that his young offensive core will mature and improve on their 676 runs scored (12th in league) and mediocre slash line of .265/.317/.400. Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Johnny Giavotella all have room to improve. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are two solid offensive pieces who stabilize the young lineup. A year ago, the Royals were a trendy pick because of this young offensive core, but the pitching and some slow development undermined all of that. And, he is assuming that a veteran rotation, an unspectacular one at that, will make enough of a difference to go from the 70 wins range to the 90 wins range.

Moore did address the main weakness of the 2012 club. James Shields isn�t miscast as a number one starter. He is a high strikeout pitcher which takes the pressure off of the young defense. He�s pitched well in playoff pressure and is one of the most dependable pitchers in the sport. Wade Davis is another quality arm who can either fit in the back of the rotation or be another excellent relief option. The 2013 Royals are better because of this trade.

But, at what cost?

Dayton Moore has overpaid for a one or two year window of trying to compete with a team that doesn�t look quite ready. The offense isn�t mature enough. Trading Myers for Shields and Davis is a difficult decision. But then, Moore gave his best pitching prospect in Odorizzi and another interesting prospect in Montgomery. In essence, Moore gave up two near future pieces, another with a chance to still be high quality, and another power bat in the low Minors for two years of James Shields and a cost effective middle to back end of the rotation starter signed through 2018. Will that be enough for the Royals to compete in 2013 and 2014?

It�s possible given their division, but it is also possible that the Royals will simply be a .500 team over the next two years. And, if they are just a .500 team and don�t win a World Series, Moore severely overpaid. The likelihood of winning a World Series is slim, making this deal an attempt to pacify the fans by making a flawed effort to win now.

The Royals are not worse off for 2013, but they are unhealthier as an organization. Moore has ravaged his farm system for a slight chance of winning. That isn�t about trading prospects because sometimes we can get too caught up in prospects and never seize an opportunity to win. Moore�s thinking isn�t off with obtaining a top of the rotation pitcher. It�s the execution of it all. It is the overpayment. It is the overvaluing of the current team and what looks to be a miscalculation of what can be done in 2013.

As for the Rays, Andrew Friedman makes another in what is turning out to be a lengthy ledger of wise decisions. The Rays are not better because they no longer have James Shields. But, they are better because they now have a young offensive player who has a big upside and who could pair with Evan Longoria for the next decade. The Rays are deep in high end pitching and got even deeper because of this deal. The Rays cut payroll, get an offensive player with high upside, a power bat for the system, and two pitchers who could be quality Major Leaguers. It is another example why the Rays will contend yet again in 2013 and beyond with just a slice of the payroll that its division mates operate under.

Dayton Moore is making the long shot bet that his team can win now. Andrew Friedman not only bets on his team for 2013, but makes them healthier for the long term. It is a contrast in styles and shows just how far apart these two organizations despite having the same economic difficulties.

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. In addition, he writes about baseball over at fullcountpitch.com. Also, join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida

Comments

# 1 WaddupCouzin @ Dec 10

Right on point as usual! As a Rays fan, I will definitely miss Shieldsy, Price is the Ace of the staff, but Shields was the leader. Good luck to James and his family, I definitely Salute you!